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After yet another consolidating acquisition of southern sawmills, it seems like an opportune moment to review the changing profile of the softwood lumber industry in the U.S. South. At the end of 2008 – the early days of the housing more…
Diversification is a risk reduction strategy illustrated in the idiom “don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” This implies we risk everything by relying on one asset, firm, idea or approach. Of course, Mark Twain, in 1894, wrote, “the more…
My older daughter* likes to tell the following joke: “Why did the banker quit his job?” “Because he lost interest.” This came to mind while reading a recent New York Times article on the power of yield curves as recession prognosticators more…
In our work over the years, we have come to learn that markets, like individuals, have “personalities” and capacities that “change” over time. For example, when fully rested and prepared, I can teach or write all day, but still cannot more…
In our previous post, we discussed timber market drivers and the “rough-hewn relationship between housing, lumber and timber.” Now, we consider regional analyses for localized investment strategies to best-position our mills and timberlands. While trees grow and markets cycle, regional more…
We often expect housing and lumber and timber markets to interact and behave in certain ways. However, these expectations assume operable levels of market clearing information and pricing that apply (somewhat) uniformly across North America in seamless, frictionless transactions. You more…
Forisk has tracked and accumulated timberland transaction and ownership data since 2006. The ownership data goes back 50 years and the transaction data goes back 20 years to 1996. This provides context when reviewing year-over-year trends. In the past twelve more…
This is the first in a series related to Forisk’s Q2 2018 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States and Canada. When forecasting timber prices and delivered wood costs, we work to (1) identify relationships in more…
To change a system or improve a process, you must understand how it works. And part of this requires understanding constraints, boundaries and capabilities. As Dirty Harry said (when discussing the importance of rigorous due diligence, I believe), “a man’s more…
When assessing timber markets and wood baskets for forest industry and timberland investments, one line of analysis focuses on the “riskiness”, likelihood and competitiveness of existing and announced wood-using manufacturing facilities in and near the market. Timberland investors want to more…