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Based simply on what we know and where we are, we can identify value-destroying exposures and viable empire building opportunities that could disrupt the forest industry as we know it. The first post in this series summarized the current economic more…
World events and shifting in capital markets increase our awareness and interest in the broader range of disruptions potentially relevant to forestry. How should we think about these? The first post in this series summarized the current economic situation in more…
Forest industry press covers the capital investments in mills, housing starts, lumber prices, and consolidation across the forest industry supply chain. The question then comes up with colleagues and clients: what are we missing? What topics, themes and drivers should more…
Leon is getting larger. The nature and structure of sawmill capacity has changed over time. The figure below summarizes the average sawmill capacity by region since 2008 along with the expected profile of the industry through 2020. Between 2008 and more…
This is the third in a series related to Forisk’s Q3 2018 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States and Canada. When comparing investments into traded REITs versus actual real estate assets – whether land or more…
This is the first in a series related to Forisk’s Q3 2018 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States. Each quarter when updating our Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) forecast models, we revisit prior projections and review more…
After yet another consolidating acquisition of southern sawmills, it seems like an opportune moment to review the changing profile of the softwood lumber industry in the U.S. South. At the end of 2008 – the early days of the housing more…
Diversification is a risk reduction strategy illustrated in the idiom “don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” This implies we risk everything by relying on one asset, firm, idea or approach. Of course, Mark Twain, in 1894, wrote, “the more…
My older daughter* likes to tell the following joke: “Why did the banker quit his job?” “Because he lost interest.” This came to mind while reading a recent New York Times article on the power of yield curves as recession prognosticators more…
In our work over the years, we have come to learn that markets, like individuals, have “personalities” and capacities that “change” over time. For example, when fully rested and prepared, I can teach or write all day, but still cannot more…