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Forisk Blog: Stumpage Forecasting

Forisk Forecast Scorecard: 2012 versus Actuals

Posted on March 27, 2013 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Forisk, Stumpage Forecasting, Timber Market Analysis

This is the fourth in a series related to Forisk’s 2013 forecast of softwood stumpage prices in the United States. How did Forisk’s Forecast perform in 2012?  For pine stumpage prices in the U.S. South, the Forisk Forecast was within more…

Tags timber forecast

Forisk Forecast: Expanding the Panama Canal

Posted on February 26, 2013 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Stumpage Forecasting, Wood Demand & Procurement

This is the third in a series related to Forisk’s 2013 forecast of softwood stumpage prices in the United States. One of the best books I read in 2012 was David McCullough’s The Path Between the Seas about the building more…

Tags Panama Canal Expansion

Forisk Forecast: US Housing Starts Outlook

Posted on February 20, 2013 by Brooks Mendell | comment (1) in Forisk, Stumpage Forecasting

This is the second in a series related to Forisk’s 2013 forecast of softwood stumpage prices in the United States. Herman Chapman, in his 1935 book Forest Finance, wrote: Forestry is an empirical art and not a mathematical science.  The more…

Tags Housing

Thoughts on Forecasting Timber Prices

Posted on February 17, 2013 by Brooks Mendell | comment (1) in Forisk, Stumpage Forecasting

Forecasting timber (stumpage) prices and wood demand relies primarily on the manipulation of historical data and relationships to assess future scenarios and prices.  While the statistical techniques are somewhat agnostic, the development and application of relevant forecasts requires judgment.  How? more…

How Do Wood Bioenergy Projects Affect Local Stumpage Prices?

Posted on September 30, 2012 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Stumpage Forecasting, Wood Bioenergy, Wood Demand & Procurement

Foresters and timberland owners in Texas could care less about wood bioenergy projects in Florida or Georgia.  Why?  Because wood bioenergy markets impact timberland investments and the forest products industry at the local level.  The uncertainty of new project announcements more…

Forisk Forecast, Part III: Forest Supplies and Market-Specific Stumpage Prices

Posted on September 9, 2012 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Stumpage Forecasting

This is the third in a three-part series related to Forisk’s modeling of future softwood stumpage prices in the US South and Pacific Northwest.  Part I focused on housing (Studying US Housing Starts) and Part II addressed wood demand (Sawmill more…

Forisk Forecast, Part II: Sawmill Capacity and Utilization

Posted on August 30, 2012 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Stumpage Forecasting, Wood Demand & Procurement

This is the second in a three-part series related to Forisk’s modeling of future softwood stumpage prices in the US South and Pacific Northwest. In Tony Hillerman’s Navajo Tribal police novel Dance Hall of the Dead, Lieutenant Joe Leaphorn remembers more…

Forisk Forecast, Part I: Studying US Housing Starts

Posted on August 26, 2012 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Forisk, Stumpage Forecasting

This is the first in a three-part series related to Forisk’s modeling of future softwood stumpage prices in the US South and Pacific Northwest. Increasing housing starts prime the pump during an economic recovery.  The Economist magazine describes the upside more…

Wood Market Realities, Part II: Demand Trumps Utilization

Posted on June 5, 2012 by Brooks Mendell | comment (1) in Forest Finance & Economics, Stumpage Forecasting, Timber Market Analysis, Wood Demand & Procurement

This is the second in a two-part series related to the analysis of wood baskets and timber markets for investments in forest industry mills, wood-using bioenergy projects and timberland. Part I of Wood Market Realities (Stumpage Price Paranoia) addressed real more…

Wood Market Realities, Part I: Stumpage Price Paranoia

Posted on May 30, 2012 by Brooks Mendell | comment (1) in Stumpage Forecasting, Timber Market Analysis

This is the first in a two-part series related to the analysis of wood baskets and timber markets for investments in forest industry mills, wood-using bioenergy projects and timberland. When analyzing timber markets or wood baskets, paranoia regarding stumpage price more…

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