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Our previous blog on the uniqueness of individual timber markets and wood baskets generated questions and follow-ups on the tyranny of regional averages and the challenge of localizing price forecasts. In our world, there is no such thing as an more…
In the book “The End of Average,” author Todd Rose talks about the “tyranny of the average.” For any group of people, we can estimate an average height and average weight and average test score, and all of this leads more…
The pursuit of the ‘preferred answer’ starts early in life. Any two-year old knows to ask Dad after Mom says, “No.” In forestry and the forecasting of timber markets, comparing approaches, like getting a second opinion, strengthens our collective understanding, more…
Mid-way through a ninth year of increasing housing starts and growing lumber consumption, timberland investors and forest owners in the U.S. South continue to struggle with flat and, in certain local markets, falling sawlog prices. Previous posts discuss how this more…
In the show “Shark Tank”, a key lesson from watching entrepreneurs get grilled by Kevin O’Leary and company is the importance of knowing your numbers. The questions are always the same, so showing up unprepared is, frankly, inexcusable. What are more…
The United States has 5% of the world’s population and over 500 million acres of timberland. According to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization, the U.S. leads the world in producing “industrial roundwood”, consuming logs and manufacturing lumber. Globally, the more…
A successful timber market analysis answers two questions. One, what are the “facts on the ground” for this market or wood basket? This helps profile the market with respect to forest supplies and wood demand. The timber suppliers and wood-using more…
This is the fourth in a series related to Forisk’s Q2 2017 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States. From 2009 through 2016, U.S. housing starts increased 112%, a compound annual rate exceeding 11%. Over this more…
This is the second in a series related to Forisk’s Q1 2017 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States and Canada. The fact that the forest industry has changed structurally over the past 10 years is more…
How well capitalized are mills in a given market? How viable and likely to succeed are announced greenfield investments in the U.S. forest products industry? This is an important concept for understanding risk, returns and future market prospects in a more…