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This post includes an excerpt from Forisk’s upcoming white paper “Timberland 2020: From High Hopes to Viral Mopes and Back Again.” The current pandemic and market volatility give us the chance to revisit the thesis and long-term benefits of owning more…
“Should we lower or increase our discount rate when valuing these assets?” asked the timberland investor, worried about impacts from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on trade, U.S. economic growth and asset values. Generally, discount rates represent the sum of a benchmark more…
In forestry, as in every natural resource or commodity-producing sector, excess inventories bleed prices. It’s that simple. The market requires lower prices to unload or workout surplus inventory. And anxious forest owners and disciplined log buyers may also realize that more…
“Better a diamond with a flaw, than a pebble without” – Confucious No measure is perfect. BMI, EBITDA, OPS+, all of these provide a relatively simple picture of something: weight, earnings, or offensive production. None of them tells the whole more…
“The future is not something to be predicted, but to be made.” – Professor Nick Montfort in The Future (The MIT Press, 2017) Discussions of inverted yield curves and equity dividend yields purport to clarify the tea leaves of investor intents more…
Where on the map should investors put capital to work in the U.S. forest industry? New research shows how the answer differs for timberland investors, sawtimber consumers, and users of pulpwood. Forisk’s 2019 North American Forest Market & Industry Rankings scores local more…
This is the second in a series related to Forisk’s Q3 2019 forest industry analysis and forecasts for the United States and Canada. When reviewing the returns of public timber vehicles, we remind ourselves of the importance of starting price. more…
This post includes data from the Q2 2019 Forisk Research Quarterly and the 2019 North American Timberland Owner & Manager List. Forisk has tracked and aggregated timberland transaction and ownership data for the past fourteen years. The ownership data goes more…
On February 28th, NCREIF – the National Council for Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries – sent out a note regarding a restatement of the Q4 2018 Timberland Property Index. Timberland investors, investment managers, and industry researchers and analysts (e.g. Forisk) often more…
We don’t succeed in business or investing by falling in love with our own ideas. We profit through continuously and doggedly comparing our prior decisions to actual results in order to calibrate our “model” of how the world works and more…