Timber Market Analyses & Stumpage Price Forecasts

Forisk generates basin-specific studies for timber and wood markets, and builds custom property and mill-specific forecasts of stumpage and delivered prices for clients.

Forisk generates basin-specific studies for timber and wood markets via the Custom Market Forecast offering. For timberland investing activities and capital budgeting decisions associated with wood-using mills or bioenergy projects, Forisk identifies and tracks price drivers and wood demand in client-specific markets.

Forisk market analyses include:

  • Market risks associated with mill consumption (wood demand), openings, closures, and exposures to end product markets;
  • Supply availability and sustainability for the volumes and raw material types required by wood-using facilities;
  • Price risks detailed through statistical analysis of client-specific timber markets to identify and quantify factors driving stumpage prices over time;
  • Logistic issues associated with ports, rail and logging capacity;
  • Conversion risks of land converting out of forestry uses within five to ten-year time frames; and
  • Comparative and competitive analysis across multiple markets.

Clients use Forisk analyses to:

  • Make timberland investment decisions;
  • Locate, close, or expand wood-using mills or bioenergy plants;
  • Identify, rank and screen potential markets for wood-using plants or timberlands;
  • Calculate transfer prices and develop wood or fiber supply agreements; and
  • Develop wood procurement plans and strategies.

Stumpage & Delivered Price Forecasts:

Forisk builds custom property and mill-specific forecasts of stumpage and delivered prices for clients. These forecasts build on Forisk’s ongoing tracking and evaluation of all wood-using bioenergy projects and forest industry facilities in the United States. This tracking includes methodologies to evaluate viability, organizational commitment and risk of failure. Forecasts include Forisk’s ongoing research related to technology shifts, logging and hauling costs, forest supplies and wood demand from the lumber, pulp/paper, OSB, wood bioenergy and log export markets.

Forisk also publishes forecasts within the Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) subscription, which provides forecasted prices for 10 years by region and by state for the US South and Pacific Northwest. It builds on a macro-micro framework to specify local price movements and drivers over time:

  • Given assumptions about the US economy and housing markets,
  • How will demand for wood raw materials drive stumpage prices in each local market,
  • Subject to constraints and surpluses in manufacturing capacity and forest supplies.

 

Forisk’s deep experience with available timber price data sets, forest operations research, and operating and announced wood-using facilities in the continental US provide the basis for custom forecasts for softwood and hardwood roundwood and chips.

 

For more information regarding these services, please contact Nick DiLuzio (ndiluzio@forisk.com).