This post includes data from Forisk’s North American Timberland Transactions Database and research from the Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ). To learn more about the FRQ, please click here or email Nick DiLuzio at ndiluzio@forisk.com.

Introduction

The year 2025 maintained the timberland market trends observed over the past three years: steadily increasing asset values alongside declining transaction volumes. While the NCREIF Timberland Index indicates that private institutional timberland values continue to climb, investors are finding it increasingly difficult to underwrite acquisitions at these levels.

U.S. Transaction Volume and Value

In 2025, Forisk tracked 46 completed transactions in the U.S., totaling 940,000 acres. Since 2023, annual volume has averaged approximately 1 million acres—a significant shift from the longer-term average of 2.8 million acres per year established since 2015.

 

(Figure 1: Total Annual Transacted Acres and NCREIF Timberland Index, 2015-2025) (Note: 2016 data includes the 6.3-million-acre Weyerhaeuser/Plum Creek merger; 2022 data includes the 1.7-million-acre Forestland Group sale and an 870,000-acre redemption by Ontario Teachers’ Pension. Excluding these large deals, the 10-year average would be 2 million acres).

Market Outlook: Correction or Moderation?

While many industry participants have called for a valuation “reset,” historical NCREIF Index data shows little evidence of significant downward corrections.

• Historical Context: For four years following the Great Recession (2009–2013), per-acre values decreased at a compounded annual rate (CAGR) of 3.1%.
• Current Trend: Since 2021, values have increased at a CAGR of 6.8%, though this growth starts from a significantly higher baseline than previous cycles.

 

(Figure 2: Historical NCREIF Timberland Values and periodic CAGR, 1995-2025)

 

Rather than a sharp correction, the nature of timberland as a stable, long-term asset suggests a “moderation” of appreciation. A period of slower growth may allow the “buy side” of the market to catch up with current valuations.

 

To learn more about the Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ), click here or email Nick DiLuzio at ndiluzio@forisk.com.