This is the first in a series related to Forisk’s Q3 2015 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States.

Each quarter when updating our Forisk Research Quarterly forecast models, we revisit prior projections and review applied research on business and economic forecasting. In 2014, total housing starts increased 8.0% over 2013. For 2015, Forisk projects growth of 11.3% over 2014. Forisk’s Housing Starts Outlook combines independent forecasts from professionals in the housing industry. Currently, these include Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Mesirow Financial, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), The Conference Board, and Wells Fargo. Forisk applies long-term assumptions from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in establishing the peak and trend over the next ten years (Figure).

Overall, Forisk projects 2015 housing starts of 1.11 million, down 1.8% from 1.13 million as of April 2015. Forisk’s 2015 Base Case peaks at 1.57 million housing starts in 2019 before returning to a long-term trend approaching 1.51 million. For comparison, our August 2014 Base Case peaked at 1.58 million housing starts in 2019.

 

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