This post is an excerpt from the Q1 2025 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ), which includes forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for North America.

Hurricane Helene

On September 26, 2024, Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 4 storm. Hurricane Helene barreled through Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina damaging timber resources before settling over North Carolina to cause significant flood damage. Helene was the first major hurricane to hit Georgia since Hurricane Michael in 2018. Initial damage assessments indicate that the impacts of Helene will far exceed those of Michael in Georgia, with estimated timber damage of $1.28 billion due to Helene in the state. Impacts were not as extreme in Florida and South Carolina, based on initial estimates of $114 million and $83 million in timber damage, respectively.

Timber Damage and Salvage Estimates

Most mills in the area bought, and continue to buy, as much salvage wood as they could. Out of nearly 70 million tons of timber damaged by Hurricane Helene, salvaged softwood volumes met market demands more readily than hardwood. The storm’s path resulted in 82% of the total damaged timber coming from Georgia. Forisk estimated salvage by assuming markets would absorb damaged timber for six months to offset existing pulpwood demand and five months to offset sawtimber and grade demand. Volumes not recovered for salvage were assumed to be a net loss to the standing inventory while salvaged timber effectively replaced timber that would otherwise have been harvested. Losses to hardwood stands far exceeded current market demand for either pulpwood or sawtimber causing more significant impacts to the total hardwood inventory.

Future Timber Inventory Impacts

Helene impacted pine grade (chip-n-saw and sawtimber) more than pulpwood. Forisk forecasted the impacts of Hurricane Helene on future standing timber inventories in Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. The biggest impacts were in Georgia and Northeast Florida. Pine grade inventory in Southwest Georgia drops 15% in ten years relative to a scenario with no hurricane. Northeast Florida (which spans from the Atlantic Ocean to nearly Tallahassee) lost 3% of pine grade inventory and Southeast Georgia lost 3%. Lack of strong hardwood markets reduces the salvage offsets of lost hardwood inventory. Both Georgia and Florida forecast a 4% decline in hardwood inventory by 2035, while South Carolina dips less than 1%.

 

Figure: Pine Grade Inventory Forecasts in 2035 With and Without Hurricane Helene
Data Source: Forisk Consulting