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Forisk Forecast Scorecard: 2015 Projections versus Year-End Actuals

This is the third in a series related to Forisk’s Q1 2016 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States.

Each quarter, we look back and evaluate the performance of previous forecasts and earlier models. How did Forisk’s final 2015 forecasts track relative to 2015 actuals? Overall, year-end actuals lagged Forisk projections across the board, driven by slower-than-estimated increases in housing starts and the associated lower levels of wood demand and lumber production. Annualized, actual housing starts came in at 1.105 million, or 1.5% (17,000 units) below Forisk’s final 2015 outlook. Looking forward, Forisk projects housing starts of 1.256 million for 2016.

With respect to pine stumpage prices in the U.S. South, actual 2015 prices for sawtimber and chip-n-saw lagged Forisk’s 2015 projections by 1.6% and 4.9% each while pulpwood ended 2.7% below the 2015 forecast. Analyses of eleven individual state-by-state forecasts relative to Timber Mart-South actuals shows that Forisk 2015 projections were, on average, $0.46 per ton higher than the actual pine sawtimber prices for 2015.

Forisk Scorecard: Forecast versus 2015 Actuals

20160217 FRQ Scorecard

For the Pacific Northwest, delivered softwood prices reported by Wood Resources International and the Oregon Department of Forestry were 3.6% lower than Forisk final 2015 projections for domestic #2 delivered Douglas-fir along the Oregon/Washington coast, and 4.9% lower for domestic #2 delivered hemlock logs for the same region. Across categories in Oregon and Washington, Forisk projections tracked $23.82 per MBF above 2015 actuals.


To learn more about the Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ), click here or call Forisk at 770.725.8447.

Comments (1)

  1. Bruce Carroll / Reply

    Glad to see that you do a forecast postmortem. Too many folks will provide a forecast but not take the time to compare their projections to actual. Even fewer have the guts to publish the forecast accuracy.

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