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Forisk Blog: 2017

Forisk Forecast: US Housing Starts Outlook, Q4 2017 Update

Posted on October 20, 2017 by Brooks Mendell | comment (1) in Forest Finance & Economics

This is the first in a series related to Forisk’s Q4 2017 forest industry analysis and timber price forecasts for the United States and Canada. Fear has no place in evaluating a forecast. What are we scared of? That the more…

The Math of Timberland Returns and Our Unease with Rational Thought

Posted on October 11, 2017 by Brooks Mendell | comments (6) in Forest Finance & Economics

Professor Richard Thaler won this year’s Nobel Prize for Economics, in part, for research confirming that we (humans) believe we are smarter and more rational than we actually are. Asked how he plans to spend the $1.1 million prize money, Thaler more…

Natural Disasters and Forestry Markets, Part II

Posted on September 27, 2017 by Shawn Baker | no comments in Risk Management, Stumpage Forecasting, Timberlands, Wood Demand & Procurement

This is the second installment in our discussion of the 2017 Hurricane season’s impacts on the forest industry. See Part I for additional analysis. Brooks Mendell, Andrew Copley and Justin Tyson contributed to this blog. The closest comparison we have more…

Tags Housing, Hurricanes

Natural Disasters and Forestry Markets, Part I

Posted on September 24, 2017 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Risk Management, Structural Panels, Stumpage Forecasting, Timberlands, Wood Demand & Procurement

Shawn Baker, Andrew Copley and Justin Tyson contributed to this blog. Catastrophic or severe weather events and risks may exceed the abilities and flexibility of the most talented wood supply organization. How might we think about these risks? Weather risk more…

Tags Housing, Hurricanes

Recommendations for Using the NCREIF Timberland Index When Evaluating Investment and Manager Performance

Posted on September 14, 2017 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Forest Finance & Economics, Timber REITs, Timberlands

This post includes excerpts from previous research published by Forisk and summarizes comments we delivered at the Who Will Own the Forest? Conference in Portland, Oregon on September 13, 2017. Decades of “nightly news” exposure to investment indices such as more…

Counting Trees: Notes on Modeling the Accumulation of Forest Supplies in the U.S. South

Posted on August 28, 2017 by Brooks Mendell | comments (3) in Timber Market Analysis, Timberlands, Wood Demand & Procurement

The pursuit of the ‘preferred answer’ starts early in life. Any two-year old knows to ask Dad after Mom says, “No.” In forestry and the forecasting of timber markets, comparing approaches, like getting a second opinion, strengthens our collective understanding, more…

How Does Increasing Sawmill Efficiency Affect Wood Demand and Timber Prices?

Posted on August 18, 2017 by Amanda Lang | no comments in Forest Technology, Stumpage Forecasting

This post includes an excerpt from research published in the Q3 2017 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ). Pine sawtimber stumpage prices in the South bottomed in 2012. Despite modest recovery through 2015, prices dropped the past two years. While timber price models more…

Tags technology, timber forecast, wood demand

Sizing Up Canada’s Forest Products Industry

Posted on August 15, 2017 by Brooks Mendell | no comments in Forest Finance & Economics

This post includes an excerpt from research published in the Q3 2017 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ). Canadian forests support one of the world’s leading wood products industries. And that industry is in flux, rationalizing legacy investments in newsprint mills, navigating more…

Tags Canada, softwood lumber

Global Industrial Wood Pellet Demand Forecast and U.S. Wood Bioenergy Update: Q3 2017

Posted on August 8, 2017 by Brooks Mendell | comment (1) in Forisk, Wood Bioenergy

This post includes an excerpt from the bioenergy research authored by Amanda Lang and Andrew Copley published in the Q3 2017 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) Publication. Forisk projects global demand for industrial wood pellets to grow at an annual compound more…

Tags Wood Bioenergy, wood pellets

Truck Insurance Remains a Concern for the Logging Industry

Posted on August 2, 2017 by Shawn Baker | comment (1) in Forest Operations

Below is an excerpt from a Q3 2017 article in the Forisk Research Quarterly examining issues affecting commercial automobile insurance and log truck insurance specifically. Large swaths of the general public still have no idea what modern logging entails. Even in areas with extensive more…

Tags logging costs

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