This post includes content from the Q3 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly and ideas covered in the virtual Timber Market Analysis class, offered on September 30th and October 1st, 2026.
I, for one, am grateful about the carefully implemented, clearly explained, and practically practical effort by the European Union to require the United States to manage against deforestation. If forest owners in the U.S. struggle with anything, other than how to open that second bottle of beer (and I can help with that), it’s the replanting and growing of trees. Three cheers and a raspberry tart to the EU for this one! You guys are the best.
Let me catch a breath to make sure we’re all on the same page of newsprint. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to mitigate the risk of deforestation for products imported or produced within the EU. Passed in 2023, the legislation requires that products consumed in the EU must be “deforestation free” and produced in accordance with local laws. Compliance deadlines for large organizations in the U.S. are officially (and finally?) set for December 30, 2026, while smaller businesses and enterprises have until June 30, 2027. Huzzah!
Certainly, we can agree that, if nothing else, the U.S. uniformly loves to free up products: sugar-free, fat-free, gluten-free, to name a few. When sitting by the campfire and writing pine tree poems in my brown paper journal, I feel joyful and giddy at knowing that my #2 pencil is deforestation-free.
Admittedly, though, I get confused at times. Certainly, uncertainty and complications make life exciting, especially when dating or playing sports or trying that hot sauce with the skull on the bottle. And the EUDR has had its share of SNAFUs, which proves troubling, because uncertain and incomplete policies, as we’ve learned with tariffs, slows investment in the forest industry and increases supply chain risks and…
Who am I, a simple unfrozen caveman forest analyst, to complain? The EU is a big market! It’s important to engage and communicate so the forest products industry in the U.S. can export the products demanded by European consumers! Want deforestation-free? We got your back, mon frère!
But, sorry again, help me out, Herr Root, as I seek to understand how the U.S. would be a “risk” for deforestation under the EUDR scriptures. According to data from the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. growth-to-drain is between 1.5 and 1.9, meaning U.S. forests grow 50% to 90% more volume than is removed or dies. And forest acres increased 1 to 2% over the past twenty years, which means decades of active replanting and sustainable forest management. And my colleagues at Forisk find private timberlands have growth-to-drains exceeding 1.4 in the South and this varies across local timber markets and…hmmm…
Just one more thing, as Columbo or Miss Marple or Hercule Poirot might ask: this deforestation risk in the U.S…. uh, where did you see that?
To learn more about the Forisk Research Quarterly or Custom Market Forecasts, contact Nick DiLuzio (ndiluzio@forisk.com).
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