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Pellet Mill Risk Factor Analysis

In the Q2 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly, Forisk Consulting forecasted three scenarios of U.K. wood pellet demand with demand falling in the near term in all scenarios. Based on Forisk’s pellet demand forecasts, there will be a supply and demand imbalance, at least in the near term.

For the Q3 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly Forisk Facts & Figures, we analyzed six weighted risk factors to help assess the risk of closure for 34 export-oriented U.S. South pellet facilities. The first three factors ranked the results for individual mills into statistical quartiles. These factors include Cost to Port, Weighted Fiber Price and Years Since Last CAPEX. The other three factors used a binary score of zero or one. Those factors were Average Age, Vertical Integration and Port Control. All of the scores were summed by mill with a maximum score of 15 and then re-ranked by quartile for the combined score.

Figure 1. Risk factors used to evaluate export pellet facilities risk of closure.

Check out the Q3 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly for results and details. To learn more about the Forisk Research Quarterly email Nick DiLuzio at ndiluzio@forisk.com.

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